Border controls will still have to be possible for a long time
The permission of the EU Commission to extend the border controls “one last time” is an empty threat. It is already foreseeable that the necessary preconditions for a controlled migration will not be created even in six months.
The EU Commission has allowed Germany, Austria and other countries “one last time” to carry out border checks for a further six months. But this can hardly be more than an empty threat of Brussels to the countries concerned. For now, it is already foreseeable: even in six months, the conditions will not be met for Germany and other countries to be able to do without the controls. The most important prerequisite for this would be secured EU external borders, which allow for a controlled and limited migration to the EU.
However, the EU is away from it for miles
Whether it is ever possible to really control the external borders is questionable, but must not be left untried. Failure to do so will require the EU member states to think together about functioning and humanitarian minimum solutions to effectively safeguard EU external borders. There is also no second important requirement for fully open borders: There is no reliable distribution mechanism in the EU for the arriving refugees.
Many EU countries are not ready to accept new migrants
Without this distribution mechanism, most refugees continue to work in the north of Europe, Germany, Denmark and Sweden. However, as long as uncontrolled, large refugee flows remain possible in Germany, the population will not accept the renouncement of border controls.
As long as there will be no political majorities. The EU Commission has, in the meantime, mainly focused on the functioning of the Schengen area. However, a return to the status before the 2015 refugee crisis can not be easily enforced by Brussels.
The primary task of the EU Commission and the EU Council of Ministers must, therefore, be to create the necessary conditions for the Schengen area to function again: secure external borders and a fair distribution mechanism for refugees are indispensable.
If this is not achieved, the Commission will, in particular, continue to lose interest and respect in the countries concerned. The countries will have a new conflict with Brussels in six months’ time – and they will probably win it again.